Report on Indian Bond Market_Jun’24: Will Global Gloom Overshadow A Domestic Bloom: A Tale of Two Drivers

The Report analyses the multifarious factors which drive government yields from the perspective of being at the top of the rate hike cycle, as is the case presently. With the worst of inflation behind RBI and robust domestic growth in the offing, it identifies global factors as key monitorables. Delving into the anatomy of US Fed actions, it throws light on frequent changes in commentary which have led to exaggerated volatility in US yields. Presenting the forex buffers present as a shield, it positions external risks as a remote possibility on the horizon. Concluding that rate cuts are likely to start in Q3FY25, the Report also says that 10Y Union G-sec yields will likely stay durably below 7%

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