This volume of the EcoCapsule covers the journey from Big Bang to Big Bust in which the so called “Liberation Day” quickly disintegrated into the ruins of reality. The tariff war appears to headed towards a nuanced ending with extensive bilateral treaties replacing a globalised world. Even though the spectre of protectionism has got a 90-day reprieve, temporarily calming down the markets, the wait and watch approach is doing more harm than good, delaying asset repricing and putting off capex decisions. Further, errant behaviour from the POTUS is sending the USD on a ride, and EM currencies on a wild goose chase behind it. India stands better placed in this ruckus, with domestic fundamentals supported by fiscal space and monetary easing. Even as liquidity tap washes away some sins, it can’t foment the pangs of growth in toto, and the first victim of the uncertain global economy is private capex, which NSO expects will dip in FY26. The Report concludes with a cautionary note, saying the age of turbulence is not over, but simply put on hold.
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