The EcoCapsule deals with the evolving geo-economic landscape in which the notion of safe havens has been trumped by volatility being the new normal. The precipitous fall of the USD amidst rising US equities embodies this dichotomy. Doubling up on existing uncertainty, new fronts are opening up, such as in Iran – indicating inflationary risks may not be a thing of the past, and tariffs may not be the only variable left. India’s economic outlook remains mixed with monsoons dampening industrial indicators but holding out hope for boosted agricultural output. Credit growth is softening even as RBI keeps ample liquidity. However, yields have drifted up on signals of an early end to the rate cycle. Thus, at the half way point of the year, we remain exactly there – somewhere between despair and deliverance.
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